Bitcoin price traded to a new monthly high at $4,064 and later corrected lower against the US Dollar.The price declined sharply below $3,950, but dips remained supported above $3,900.There is a crucial bullish trend line formed with support at $3,920 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).The pair remains well supported on dips near the $3,920 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours).Bitcoin price is still in a strong uptrend despite recent bearish moves against the US Dollar. BTC/USD is likely to find a solid buying interest if it dips towards $3,940 or $3,920.Bitcoin Price Weekly Analysis (BTC)This past week, there was a decent upward move above $4,000 in bitcoin price against the US Dollar. The BTC/USD pair traded in a range above the $3,940 support level and finally broke the $4,000 resistance level. Buyers pushed the price above the $4,020 resistance and a new monthly high was formed at $4,064. However, buyers failed to hold gains above $4,020, resulting in a sharp decline below $4,000. The price dropped heavily and broke the $3,960 and $3,940 support levels.There was even a spike below the $3,900 support and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). Having said that, buyers defended the $3,900 support and the price bounced back sharply above $3,940. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $4,064 high to $3,869 low. The recent recovery was solid, but the price faced a strong offer zone near the $4,000 resistance. The 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last decline from the $4,064 high to $3,869 low also acted as a hurdle.At the moment, the price is consolidating below the $4,000 resistance. Besides, there is a short term connecting bearish trend line in place with resistance at $3,990 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. A clear break above the trend line and $4,000 could open the doors for a fresh upward move. On the downside, there are many supports near the $3,940 and $3,920 levels. There is also a crucial bullish trend line forming with support at $3,920 on the same chart.Looking at the chart, BTC price is clearly well supported on the downside near the $3,940 and $3.920 levels. As long as the price is above the $3,900 support and the 100 SMA, there are chances of a steady rise in the coming sessions. Buyers may wait for a clear break above the $4,000 and $4,020 resistance levels to gain control.Technical indicators4 hours MACD – The MACD for BTC/USD is slightly placed in the bearish zone.4 hours RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is currently well below the 50 level.Major Support Level – $3,900Major Resistance Level – $4,020
Archives for March 23, 2019
ETH price declined recently, but it found a strong support above $132 against the US Dollar.The price recovered and it is now facing a solid resistance near the $137-138 zone.There is a major breakout pattern formed with resistance at $138 on the 4-hours chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken).The pair is likely to accelerate higher once there is a proper break above $138 and $140.Ethereum price is aligning for the next move versus the US Dollar and Bitcoin. ETH/USD will most likely climb higher as long as there is no close below the $132-133 support area.Ethereum Price AnalysisAfter forming a stop near the $144 level, there was a steady decline in ETH price against the US Dollar. The ETH/USD pair declined below the $140 support level to move into a bearish zone. Later, it found support near the $135 level, but buyers failed to hold losses. Finally, there was a downside break below the $135 support and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). The price declined below the $134 support and traded close to the $132 support area.Recently, the price recovered and moved above the $135 level. However, the price seems to be facing a strong resistance near the $137-138 area. At the moment, it is trading near the $135 level and the 100 simple moving average (4-hours). An immediate support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the $132 low to $138 high. More importantly, there is a major breakout pattern formed with resistance at $138 on the 4-hours chart of ETH/USD.The triangle support is near the $134 level, below which the next key support is near the $132 level. It seems like the price is preparing for the next move either above $138 or below $134. On the downside, there are many supports near the $134, $133 and $132 levels. Therefore, there are high chances of an upside break above the $137-138 resistance area.The above chart indicates that ETH price is likely to climb above the $137-138 resistance area. In the mentioned bullish scenario, the price could even break the $140 resistance and revisit the $144 resistance area. The next key resistance is near the $148 level, followed by $150. On the flip side, if buyers fail to push the price above $138, there could be a downside reaction. A break below the $132 support may call for a test of the $130 support.Technical Indicators4 hours MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is currently flat, with a few positive signs.4 hours RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is currently below the 50 level, with a bearish angle.Major Support Level – $134Major Resistance Level – $138
Although Bitcoin has been struggling to garner any significant buying pressure at its current price levels, the overall crypto markets have been able to post some relatively large gains, and multiple cryptos have surged today.Although the recent bullish price action in the crypto markets is minuscule compared to what was seen throughout the second half of 2017, investors and analysts alike are keen on discovering whether or not the current price action constitutes the start of a bigger price trend to persist for the year to come.Could the Crypto Markets be in the Mythicized Altseason?Ever since the cryptocurrency markets plummeted in early-2018, traders, investors, and analysts have been speculating about when the crypto markets could possibly return back to – or break above – their previously established all-time-highs.This event has been aptly dubbed “altseason,” and represents the mythicized resurrection of the cryptocurrency markets.Mati Greenspan, the senior market analyst at eToro, believes that the markets are currently in altseason, as multiple individual cryptos have been able to post decent recoveries from their all-time-lows.“As we’ve been discussing for several weeks now, the crypto market is currently in the throes of altseason. This is a necessary process where a lot of the [cryptos] and garbage ICOs of 2017 are losing their value as investors dump them for tokens with greater potential,” he explained in a recent email.Although most cryptos are still down 80% or even 90% from their all-time-highs, the recent price action may signal that investors believe that the markets have already found a long-term bottom and are ready to begin recovering.Individual Cryptos Surge TodayAs a sign that the markets are truly experiencing altseason presently, many individual cryptos have surged today and over the past week.At the time of writing, Cardano (ADA) is one of the best performing cryptocurrencies, as it is currently trading up nearly 11% at its current price of $0.064. ADA has surged significantly from its weekly lows of under $0.05 and is currently trading at a one-month high.This surge may be partially due to the recent release of Cardano version 1.5, which brings the crypto one step closer to its highly anticipated Shelly release, which will convert it to a proof-of-stake blockchain.Other cryptocurrencies have also posted higher-than-average price gains today, with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) climbing over 3%, and Tron (TRX) surging 5%.When considering the price gains that many individual cryptos have experienced over the past month, it does in fact appear that the cryptocurrency markets may be in the throes of altseason, and that a long-term bottom may already have been established.Featured image from Shutterstock.
Since Bitcoin (BTC) began to falter in early-2018, optimistic investors, many of which are “HODLing,” have resorted to grasping for straws. Case in point, the words, “Wall Street” and “institutional investors,” are incessantly mentioned, as crypto diehards have sought to find a light at the end of the proverbial tunnel.But are institutional stakeholders really here?Wall Street Doesn’t Like Crypto?In recent weeks, the narrative that institutions and similar entities are flooding into the cryptocurrency space has been overtly questioned.The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the first issuer of U.S.-regulated Bitcoin futures, shuttered its offering. As reported by NewsBTC, this means that by June 2019, the exchange’s clients will have no open interest in any of the cryptocurrency contracts the CBOE offers. While some groups, like media outlet The Block, chalked this closure to the fact that there simply wasn’t enough demand to warrant the continued operation of the vehicle, some were more cynical.Joe Weisenthal, a crypto-friendly reporter & anchor at Bloomberg TV, remarked that the “institutional money” cheer, sparked by the arrival of futures and custody solutions, is “one of the most busted narratives of 2018.”The idea that crypto futures (and crypto custody solutions) would unleash a tidal wave of “institutional money” is one of the most busted narratives of the last year. https://t.co/13RGkcDcBx— Joe Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) March 15, 2019Mark Dow, a notorious Bitcoin short seller, echoed Weisenthal’s statement. Dow took to Twitter citing his anecdotal experience as a “whale” in this market, explaining that every time he had to “roll his BTC exposure each month, liquidity got worse.” He added that it’s hard for him to buy “the story about broadening institutional adoption,” especially considering the aforementioned CBOE development.Related Reading: Access to Thousands of Institutions: Gemini Crypto Exchange Partners With British TelecomNot So FastYet, the launch of a dark pool offering from Omega One might indicate that believe it or not, there still is institutional interest in this space. Alex Gordon-Brander, a ConsenSys C-suite member turned chief executive of Omega, recently took to Bloomberg to explain the subject matter in depth.Omega One launches the first regulated, fully independent and institutionally focused dark pool for crypto assets https://t.co/wmWe9CNcxG pic.twitter.com/yt0WBMnCUa— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) March 21, 2019Gordon-Brander explained that dark pools, a more private, shadowed version of an over-the-counter (OTC) desk, should reduce slippage, volatility, and liquidity concerns for institutions looking to delve into crypto assets, like Bitcoin. The former Standard & Poor’s employee then hints that there is demand for such a desk, explaining that there is “massive interest on the institutional side.”Even if Omega’s launch doesn’t indicate ongoing involvement from incumbents of traditional industries, it could be argued that this newfangled dark pool could entice institutional players to make a foray into cryptocurrencies. That’s what some hope anyway.Featured Image from Shutterstock
Although Bitcoin has been unable to find any noteworthy buying pressure in the low-$4,000 region ever since it advanced to this price level, when looking at a larger time frame it becomes apparent that BTC is not currently bearish, despite its persisting bout of sideways trading.One analyst is quick to point out that Bitcoin is currently caught in an ascending triangle pattern, which result in upwards breaks the vast majority of the time with relatively high average price movements.Bitcoin Stable Above $4,000, But BTC Lacks Significant Buying Pressure At the time of writing Bitcoin is trading down nominally at its current price of $4,030. Throughout this past week, BTC has advanced towards $4,100 on multiple occasions, but has not been able to break above this price level.Although there may be some levels of resistance at $4,100, it is likely that $4,200 is a significantly larger resistance level, as BTC spiraled downwards after briefly touching this price level in late-February.Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to have developed into a fresh trading range between $4,000 and $4,100, which may persist for the foreseeable future.Because weekends typically have lower than average trading volume, the markets are more susceptible to incurring volatility, which may mean that the upper and lower bounds of the aforementioned trading range will be tested either today or tomorrow.Statistics May Signal That Large Upwards Price Swing is Inevitable Although the current price action is certainly not overwhelmingly bullish, Bitcoin is currently nearing the end of a large ascending triangle, which could mean that a large upwards price surge is imminent.According to a recent tweet from popular cryptocurrency analyst, Galaxy, a study – dubbed Bulkowski’s study – found that ascending triangles result in an upwards price break 60% of the time, with an average ensuing price surge of 35%.“According to Bulkowski’s study, more than 60% of ascending triangles with declining volume end up breaking upwards…with an average price rise of 35%. That gives us a target of $5500 BTC once the breakout is confirmed,” he explained.According to Bulkowski’s study, more than 60% of ascending triangles with declining volume end up breaking upwardswith an average price rise of 35%That gives us a target of $5500 BTC once the breakout is confirmed. $BTC pic.twitter.com/dThMCtNZDX— Galaxy (@galaxyBTC) March 23, 2019As the weekend continues on and as Bitcoin nears the end of this ascending triangle formation, which will likely be reached in mid-April, traders and analysts alike will gain greater insight into whether or not the crypto winter is truly coming to an end.Featured image from Shutterstock.
Ethereum price stable above $135Tron not a worthy competitorParticipation dries as prices dropVitalik is confident, and while he doesn’t see Polkadot as a competitor, he will lose a certain amount of faith in humanity if Tron surpasses Ethereum in market cap or development. At the time of press, Ethereum (ETH) is flat with unfavorable candlestick patterns.Ethereum Price AnalysisFundamentalsVitalik is candid. He acknowledges that there the smart contracting scene is heating up and Ethereum may have slipped, dropping ranks.He’s unfazed and confident that despite everything, he’s not worried. He’s especially not losing sleep over emerging blockchains like Polkadot. Polkadot raised millions of dollars and claimed to employ a “heterogeneous Multi-chain technology” ensuring that “transactions can be spread out across the chains, allowing many more to be processed in the same time.”Even so, Afri Schoedon—a former Ethereum developer who left the project in a huff, acknowledged that “Polkadot is not a direct competitor to Ethereum and chains like Ethereum were always an integral part of the Polkadot vision.” However, what shall pulverize Vitalik’s heart making him lose “certain amount of hope for humanity” is if Tron usurps Ethereum. In the same interview with Laura Shin, he said he’s confident that his platform isn’t violating securities law and ICOs will continue to roll out regardless of crowd-funding platform.Candlestick ArrangementAt the time of writing, it is clear that Ethereum prices are cooling off. Perched at second place, ETH is stable but under pressure after Mar 21 liquidations.Even so, we are optimistic, expecting prices to find support at $135. After then, prices will likely spring to $150 and later $170.Before then, it all depends on how prices react at our support line confirming or nullifying gains of Mar 5. In the latter, that will usher in bears of Feb 24. In that case, ETH would likely drop to $100 in line with our last ETH/USD trade plan.Technical IndicatorsMar 4-5 double bar bull reversal pattern founds our bullish over-view. Affirming bulls will be a sharp spike above $150 or $170 with accompanying volumes exceeding 302k and even 880k of Feb 24. Such a shift in momentum reverses losses of Feb 24, and the resulting breakout will trigger a rally towards $250 cementing our stance. On the other hand, any sell-off with equally high volumes pours cold water on our forecast nullifying our position as ETH crumbles to $100.Chart courtesy of Trading View
Throughout the past three months, the bitcoin price has flirted with the $4,200 resistance level, often struggling to maintain momentum above the key $4,000 mark.
Several traders have demonstrated concerns over the extended period of stability demonstrated by bitcoin because, in late 2018, the cryptocurrency recorded a drop of around 50 percent following three months of stagnation in the $6,300 to $6,500 range.
However, a cryptocurrency technical analyst known to the community as “Galaxy” has said that once bitcoin breaks out of a key resistance level above $4,000, it could potentially recover to $5,500.
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The analyst explained:
“According to Bulkowski’s study, more than 60% of ascending triangles with declining volume end up breaking upwards with an average price rise of 35%.”
“That gives us a target of $5500 BTC once the breakout is confirmed.”
No Scenario For Bitcoin is Confirmed Yet
Many technical analysts and traders remain cautiously optimistic on the price trend of bitcoin, partially concerned about the inability of bitcoin to cleanly break out of $4,000 and test major resistance levels.
Throughout the past week, BTC has remained relatively stable in the $4,000 to $4,100 range, unable to rebound to the $4,200 level since late February.
At the time, economist and crypto market analyst Alex Krüger said that BTC endured a short-term correction as soon as it reached its first major resistance, following a prolonged upside movement.
He told CCN:
“It is a simple stops run. Prices had just gone up vertically for 16 days without a pullback. Take $ETH for example: +38% without a pullback. Lots of levered longs piled up. And people FOMOed in. BTC reached the first level strong resistance ($4200) and a correction ensued.”
“As it is with any other asset class or market, the analyst emphasized that a prolonged bullish movement is often met with a large pullback.”
As such, it remains unclear whether bitcoin would be able to climb up to a reasonable range above $4,000 and hold its momentum, avoiding a short-term drop to its current level.
On the technical side, due to the difficulty bitcoin has had in finding any meaningful momentum or an upside price movement above $4,000, it may require a significant push to break out of $4,200 in the near-term, which it retraced from last month.
While bitcoin recorded a minor loss on the day, several major crypto assets in the likes of TRON, Cardano, and OmiseGo recorded gains in the range of 5 to 10.5 percent, with Cardano recording the largest gain against both bitcoin and the U.S. day among the three.
Bitcoin Hashrate Versus Price, What Does it Show?
Since January 2018, the bitcoin price has dropped by nearly 80 percent against the U.S. dollar. Consequently, analysts expected the hashrate of the Bitcoin network to decline, proportionally to the price of BTC.
Bitcoin Hash Rate vs Price
— Ceteris Paribus (@ceterispar1bus) March 22, 2019
However, throughout the past year, despite a noticeable dip in September 2018, the hashrate of BTC has continuously increased.
The gap in the hashrate and the price suggests that miners are willing to mine at a loss for two possible reasons: it is difficult to get rid of existing equipment and electricity commitment or are expecting the price of bitcoin to increase in the long run.
Bitcoin Price stable but under pressureBitwise research concludes that 95 percent of exchanges’ volumes fakeTransaction volumes shrink after Mar 21It’s a sequel of damaging news. Days after SEC revealed the public’s apprehension of Bitcoin ETF approval; Bitwise report confirms what Jay Clayton isn’t comfortable with: Exchanges’ manipulation. Even so, Bitcoin volumes are flat as prices consolidate inside Mar 21 high low.Bitcoin Price AnalysisFundamentalsBitwise Asset Management, a private firm behind the first cryptocurrency index fund, Bitwise 10 Private Index Fund, has a damning finding on cryptocurrency trading and exchanges in particular. With interests and in the process of applying for a Bitcoin ETF, the firm did thorough research on exchange’s order book, using the “first-of-its-kind analysis of order book data from all 81 exchanges reporting more than $1 million in BTC volume on CMC.”Their conclusion found out that “95 percent of volumes are fake.” By concentrating their efforts on CoinMarketCap, the leading cryptocurrency tracker, plagued by claims of leniency and failing to delist exchanges accused of wash trading and other forms of manipulation, the diligence of Bitwise research team found that volume inflation was rampant in “loosely regulated and unregulated exchanges.”They went on to say the actual trading volume is around $270 million and not even close to the $6 billion relayed by coin trackers. It is this inflation and outright data manipulation that SEC Chairman Jay Clayton says “is uncomfortable with” all because “some thefts around digital assets that make you scratch your head.”Now that comments after SEC solicitation have been made public and not many—judging from what the commission received from the public—are fond of a Bitcoin ETF. A concerned citizen, D. Barnwell, advised the SEC adopt a “much longer time horizon to take a ‘watch-and-wait approach.’”Candlestick ArrangementAlthough Bitcoin (BTC) prices are stable in the last day, the failure of bulls to drive prices above $4,500 should be a concern. Note that $4,500 not only double up as our immediate resistance line. It is also $200 away from Feb 24 highs, our anchor bar.In any case, our trade plan is valid, and from our technical arrangement, every low should be a buying opportunity. However, if prices break below $3,900 and the accompanying bar is wide-ranging then we may see a meltdown towards $3,500.Technical IndicatorsOur reference bar in the next few days is Mar 16—13k against 7k. Because we have a double bar bear reversal pattern after Mar 21 liquidations—11k against 7k, any confirmation of bears must be with high volumes exceeding 15k. On the flip side, bull trend confirmation towards $4,500 must meet the same trade conditions.Chart courtesy of Trading View
Another week, another Crypto Tidbits. The past seven days were, by many measures, an interesting period for the cryptocurrency space. Mainstream adoption moved ever closer, more money poured into this space, and infrastructure was built out. But, one report claimed that 95% of all Bitcoin trading activity could be entirely false, setting a harrowing precedent for this space.Related Reading: Crypto Tidbits: CBOE Pauses Bitcoin Futures, Tether Controversy, Stellar Lumens On CoinbaseCrypto TidbitsTwo Crypto Funds Join Hands: This week, Morgan Creek Digital, headed by partners Mark Yusko, Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano, and Jason A Williams, revealed it would be anchoring the Los Angeles-based Ikigai’s crypto fund, which will issue long-short trades and take stakes in early-stage firms. The nominal value of this sum was not divulged. Pomp remarked that it believes that Ikigai, headed by anti-establishment proponent Travis Kling, should be “well-positioned to capture” crypto’s long-term asymmetric risk-return profile. Morgan Creek’s decision to down this red pill comes after it secured a $40 million bursary from two Virginian pension funds, an endowment, and other institutions to invest in industry stakeholders such as Bakkt, Coinbase, and Harbor.Kakao’s Talk App To Integrate Digital Asset Wallet: Media outlet Financial News (FnNews) reports that the 44 million users of Kakao’s flagship product, popular messaging platform KakaoTalk, will soon be directly exposed to digital assets, such as Bitcoin. Speaking to the portal, an array of industry insiders, who are purportedly working in tandem with the Jeju-based firm, claimed that KakaoTalk could see use as a “crypto wallet,” giving 44 million South Koreans the ability to interact blockchains. The FnNews report claims that utilizing the application will be as easy as sending a message, allowing users to send or request for cryptocurrencies with a few clicks, thus reducing the barrier to entry. Interestingly, an executive of Kakao couldn’t deny or confirm the rumors. However, the unnamed representative did note that his company is looking into blockchain technologies, making it somewhat logical to assume that Kakao has a cryptocurrency storage prototype at the very minimum.Bitwise Finds 95% Of Bitcoin Trading Activity Could Be Fake: Bitwise Asset Management, a leading cryptocurrency investment services firm, revealed that much of crypto’s current trading activity could be entirely false. The company’s researchers use a set of factors, data sets, and patterns to accentuate that there’s a likelihood that up to 95% of all Bitcoin volumes are “fake and/or non-economic in nature.” Per Bitwise’s website meant to track this phenomenon, Bitcoin’s spot volume over the past 24-hours is purportedly only $177 million — a far cry to the $9.3 billion registered on a site like Coin Market Cap.1/ New Research from us @BitwiseInvest.As part of 226 slides presented to the SEC on our ETF filing, we did a first-of-its-kind analysis of *order book data* from all 81 exchanges reporting >$1M in BTC volume on CMC.TLDR: 95% of reported volume is fake but LOTS of good news! pic.twitter.com/TuXLlDCRyP— Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) March 22, 2019Binance Launches Cash-For-Crypto Service in Australia: The Next Web’s Hard Fork column reports that soon, over 1,300 brick and mortar newsagents, also known as newsstands in the U.S., have partnered with Binance to sell Bitcoin at a 5% fee, tax not included. Seen below is a map of Australian vendors that have taken part in the venture, dubbed Binance Lite. Lite’s website explains its offering as a “cash-to-bitcoin brokerage service.” Australians looking to harness this offering will find it quite simple. Users can enter in their wallet details online, hand cash over the newsagent, and then receive their Bitcoin “within minutes.” There’s one caveat though, this offering mandates investors to participate in a Know Your Customer (KYC) procedure prior to using Lite, which involves submitting one or two bonafide identification documents and a home address. At launch, Lite will only support Bitcoin purchases ranging from a value of AU$50 to AU$1,000, but the company has hinted that it will eventually add support for more digital assets, fiat currencies, and regions if Australia’s pilot is successful.Jack Dorsey Initiates Square Crypto, Plans To Hire Five Employees For Bitcoin Dev: For the umpteenth time in a matter of weeks, Jack Dorsey, Twitter’s CEO, has wowed the Bitcoin community with a straight out of left field announcement. On March 20th, the Silicon Valley powerhouse revealed that the $32 billion Square intends to hire up to five talents for “open source contributions to the Bitcoin and crypto ecosystem.” Three to four of the job offers are for engineers, especially those who have experience building out blockchain systems, and the remaining slot will be left for a designer. All positions will be full-time and will require employees to report directly to Dorsey, who will pay be issuing compensation in Bitcoin. The Square co-founder explains that he sees this as a way to bolster “individual economic empowerment,” and as a move towards the creation of a “more accessible global financial system.”#BitcoinTwitter and #CryptoTwitter! Square is hiring 3-4 crypto engineers and 1 designer to work full-time on open source contributions to the bitcoin/crypto ecosystem. Work from anywhere, report directly to me, and we can even pay you in bitcoin! Introducing @SqCrypto. Why?— jack (@jack) March 20, 2019SBI To Manufacture Bitcoin Miners: In a recent notice, SBI Group, a multi-faceted giant in Japan, revealed that it would be manufaturing cryptocurrency mining devices through a subsidiary. This is far from the firm’s first foray into the industry. SBI has formerly launched digital asset exchanges and payment infrastructures based on Ripple, all while investing in a number of crypto-centric intiatives.Featured Image from Shutterstock
Ripple prices flat-line below 34 centsJake Chervinsky, a crypto lawyer, believes ongoing civil suit against Ripple will settle next yearVolumes low, averaging 15 million.Eventual clarification of XRP’s status will either cause a rally or a meltdown as owners liquidate their holdings escaping SEC’s incoming oversight. At the moment, prices are stable and ranging inside a 4 cents range with caps at 34 cents.Ripple Price AnalysisFundamentalsUnlike others, Ripple Inc is bogged down by regulators and difficulty of conclusively interpreting what Howey Test means for blockchain assets. It is a concern that a former SEC member, Michael Didiuk, has come forth to clarify that from his analysis, Ripple (XRP) is not security insisting that “XRP is a currency. The reason why is […] Howey test… It’s a 4-factor test – Investment of money in a common enterprise with the expectation of profits based on the efforts of others.”Should any court finding find them—Ripple Labs entangled in several civil action suites—liable then it is likely that the SEC will declare the asset security. However, the judgment is set to drag on mostly because of red-tape and SEC as a mandated agency vested with powers to declare any asset security or utility.In a tweet storm, Jake Chervinsky, a prominent crypto lawyer from Kobre & Kim said “even though we’ve been talking about the Ripple securities litigation for almost a year, the case basically just started this week, and it’ll be a very long time – another year or more – before anything exciting happens.” He continued saying, “after the consolidated complaint is filed, Ripple will *finally* have to submit a substantive response. I expect that will be a motion to dismiss, arguing that the allegations in the complaint–even if true–don’t add up to a violation of the securities laws.”Candlestick ArrangementAt third, Ripple (XRP) is under pressure with tight price movements in the last month or so. It is down 1.2 percent in the previous week, and because of low volatility, our previous XRP/USD trade plan is applicable.As mentioned, our buy trigger is at 34 cents with firm supports at 30 cents. We emphasize that it is after a high volume bar prints that we can initiate longs or shorts depending on the direction of the breakout, a result of the BB squeeze in progress.Expectedly, the confirming bar must have high trade volumes above recent average of 14 million and more importantly 61 million of Feb 24.Technical IndicatorsAs aforementioned, our anchor bar is Feb 24—61 million and even though bearish, subsequent bars—aside from those of Feb 25—had low volatility. Therefore, for trend confirmation—translating to a break above 34 cents, the breakout bar must have print above 61 million triggering a rally that could drive Ripple (XRP) above 40 cents.Chart courtesy of Trading View